Trade Desk › Every loss, published

Every loss, published.

The published record stands at +54.5R across 111 closed trades with a profit factor of 2.10. 54 of those trades lost money. The worst lost −1.01R, one hundredth past the planned stop. This page lists every one of them, because a record that hides its losers isn't a record. It's a highlight reel.
Data drawn live from the same file that powers the published track record · updated every Sunday
This is the Substack record: every trade I took and called for subscribers since I began publishing there. I have been trading for 18 years; this page covers the time since then.

The numbers a highlight reel can't fake

+54.5RTotal, 111 trades
+1.90RAverage win
−0.92RAverage loss
−1.01RWorst loss ever

Read those four numbers together and you have the whole system. The average winner makes roughly twice what the average loser costs. That asymmetry, not a sky-high win rate, is why the record compounds: at a 2:1 payoff, even winning barely half the time is decisively profitable. The win rate here is 50%.

The number that matters most on this page is the last one. In 111 published trades, no loss has ever exceeded −1.01R, one hundredth past the planned risk, which is ordinary fill slippage, not a blown stop. Losing trades are not a failure of the system. They are the system, working.

The record tab in the Trade Desk: net result, win rate, profit factor, average winner, the equity curve and the hit rate for each setup type
In the app: the same record, inside the free Markets tab. Net R, a 50% win rate, the curve with its dips, and every setup type’s stop-out rate next to its target rate.

The wall at −1R

Every closed trade on the record, grouped by its result in R. Each bar is the total R those trades made or lost, so one big winner counts for more than one small loss. The red bars stop dead at −1R, that hard edge is the stop-loss doing its job. The winners spread out to the right because they are not capped.

This shape is what risk control looks like when you can see it. If stops were being widened, moved, or ignored "just this once", red bars would leak past −1R, one bad habit is all it takes. 31 of the 54 losses are full stops at approximately −1R; the rest were closed early for smaller losses. Nothing beyond the wall.

Dot plot of every closed trade in R: losers bunched at minus 1R, winners spread past plus 2R
From the record: the wall, drawn. Every loser stops at about −1R and every dot is a real closed trade.

What a full stop actually looks like

Take a real one from the table below: a GBP/CAD long that hit its stop for −1.01R, the single worst outcome in the entire published record. The trade was planned with the stop decided before entry, the position sized so that stop equalled about 1% of account risk, and when price came for the level the trade was closed and logged. No widening the stop, no averaging down, no "give it room".

The closed CORZ squeeze long on an R ladder: entry 18.72, stop 16.42, stopped for minus 1R inside a week
From the record: CORZ filled on 23 Sep 2026 and hit its stop on 29 Sep, a full −1R.

Risking 1%, it cost 1%. Then the next trade was taken. Multiply that discipline across every loss on the record and the damage stays small enough that the winners, which run about twice as far as each loss, produce a strongly positive record. That is the entire pitch of loss containment: you cannot avoid losing trades, but you can decide in advance what each one is allowed to cost.

The full list

Every losing trade on the published record, most recent first. The same trades appear in context, alongside the winners, on the full track record.

AssetTypeDirectionClosedResult
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The setups behind this record are published every Sunday

Analysed swing setups across stocks, forex and crypto with the exact entry, stop and target decided before the open, the same discipline this page documents, applied forward.

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111 trades · winners and losers · +54.5R see the full record →

FAQ

Do trading signal services lose money on trades?

All of them do, the honest question is how much each loss costs. Here, 54 of 111 closed trades lost, the average loss was −0.92R against an average win of +1.90R, and the worst single loss was −1.01R. The record is profitable because losses are capped near one risk unit while winners run about twice as far. Any service that shows you only winners is answering a different question.

What does a −1R loss cap mean in practice?

R is the amount you planned to risk, the distance from entry to stop, in money. A −1R cap means the stop is decided before entry, the position is sized from it, and the stop is honoured. A losing trade then costs about one planned risk unit, no more. The full mechanics are in how to set a stop-loss and what is an R-multiple.

Why publish the losing trades at all?

Because the losers are what make the rest of the record believable. A win rate you can't audit is marketing; 36 published losses with dates and R outcomes make the profit factor and expectancy checkable by anyone. It also shows what a subscriber is actually buying, not loss avoidance, which no honest service can sell, but loss containment.

How do I cap my own losses at −1R?

Three habits: decide the stop before entry and size the position from it (a fixed fraction of the account, commonly 1%); place the stop as a real order, not a mental level; and never widen it once in the trade. A position size calculator does the arithmetic in seconds.

Keep readingWhat is an R-multiple? · How to set a stop-loss on a swing trade · The full published record