How does the Nasdaq 100 react to the US core PCE index?
In the first 30 minutes after the US core PCE index, the Nasdaq 100 has typically moved 0.23% either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 31 Oct 2024 to 30 Sep 2026), and 0.68% after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 11 of 21 releases. When it came in hotter than forecast, Nasdaq 100 fell in the first 30 minutes on 3 of 3, median −0.23%. When it came in cooler than forecast, Nasdaq 100 rose in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 5, median +0.45%. The largest first-30-minute move was +1.11% on 30 Apr 2025.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (0.68%) is 3.0 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 52% of the time, close to a coin flip. Surprises in either direction have moved Nasdaq 100 opposite ways: median −0.23% when the figure came in hotter than forecast and +0.45% when it came in cooler than forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one Core PCE release: the figure against the forecast, then Nasdaq 100 over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 0.2% vs 0.3% cooler than forecast | +0.29% | +0.73% | +0.28% |
| 26 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 0.2% vs 0.2% in line | −0.37% | −0.18% | +0.04% |
| 30 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 0.1% vs 0.2% cooler than forecast | +0.30% | +1.28% | +3.28% |
| 25 Jun 2026 (May) | 0.3% vs 0.3% in line | +0.24% | −1.55% | +0.71% |
| 28 May 2026 (Apr) | 0.2% vs 0.3% cooler than forecast | +0.45% | +1.14% | +0.86% |
| 30 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 0.3% vs 0.3% in line | +0.30% | −0.19% | +0.99% |
| 9 Apr 2026 (Feb) | 0.4% vs 0.4% in line | 0.00% | +0.63% | +0.71% |
| 13 Mar 2026 (Jan) | 0.4% vs 0.4% in line | +0.07% | −1.03% | −0.67% |
| 20 Feb 2026 (Dec) | 0.4% vs 0.3% hotter than forecast | −0.23% | +1.09% | +0.84% |
| 22 Jan 2026 (Oct) | 0.2% no forecast | +0.09% | +0.36% | not measured |
| 5 Dec 2025 (Sep) | 0.2% vs 0.2% in line | −0.19% | −0.25% | +0.43% |
| 26 Sep 2025 (Aug) | 0.2% vs 0.2% in line | +0.22% | −0.23% | +0.40% |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for Core PCE
- Core PCE has landed at 8:30 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 9 of 23 releases, so the drift in has more often pointed the wrong way.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 0.48%. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 27 Jan 2023: on 6 releases hotter than forecast Nasdaq 100 closed the day higher 4 of 6 times; on 10 releases cooler than forecast Nasdaq 100 closed the day higher 7 of 10 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled Core PCE release is 29 Oct 2026 at 8:30 New York (12:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what Nasdaq 100 and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does Nasdaq 100 move after Core PCE?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 0.23% and the median 4-hour move was 0.68%. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 13 and fell on 9.
What does Nasdaq 100 do when Core PCE beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in hotter than forecast, Nasdaq 100 fell in the first 30 minutes on 3 of 3, median −0.23%. When it came in cooler than forecast, Nasdaq 100 rose in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 5, median +0.45%.
Does the first move after Core PCE hold?
On 11 of 21 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next Core PCE release?
29 Oct 2026 at 8:30 New York (12:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.