How does the S&P 500 react to the ISM manufacturing PMI?
In the first 30 minutes after the ISM manufacturing PMI, the S&P 500 has typically moved 0.22% either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 1 Nov 2024 to 1 Oct 2026), and 0.28% after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 12 of 22 releases. When it came in above the forecast, S&P 500 rose in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 7, median +0.19%. When it came in below the forecast, S&P 500 rose in the first 30 minutes on 6 of 7, median +0.22%. The largest first-30-minute move was +1.00% on 3 Feb 2025.
What the numbers say
The first half hour has carried most of the move, with the typical 4-hour move 27% larger than the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 55% of the time, close to a coin flip.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one ISM manufacturing release: the figure against the forecast, then S&P 500 over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 (Sep) | 54.5 vs 55 in line | −0.29% | +0.12% | +0.11% |
| 1 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 54.6 vs 55.2 missed | +0.23% | −0.04% | −0.73% |
| 3 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 55.6 vs 54 beat | +0.24% | +0.53% | +1.45% |
| 1 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 53.3 vs 54 missed | +0.22% | +0.27% | −0.06% |
| 1 Jun 2026 (May) | 54 vs 53 beat | 0.00% | +0.51% | +0.23% |
| 1 May 2026 (Apr) | 52.7 vs 53 in line | −0.20% | −0.19% | +0.20% |
| 1 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 52.7 vs 52.5 in line | +0.34% | +0.37% | +0.72% |
| 2 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 52.4 vs 51.8 beat | +0.18% | +0.34% | −0.01% |
| 5 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 47.9 vs 48.3 in line | +0.18% | +0.21% | +0.63% |
| 1 Dec 2025 (Nov) | 48.2 vs 48.6 in line | +0.03% | +0.20% | −0.48% |
| 3 Nov 2025 (Oct) | 48.7 vs 49.5 missed | −0.03% | +0.15% | +0.13% |
| 1 Oct 2025 (Sep) | 49.1 vs 49 in line | +0.32% | +0.64% | +0.34% |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for ISM manufacturing
- ISM manufacturing has landed at 10:00 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 15 of 23 releases, so the drift in has more often than not pointed the right way.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 0.45%. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 4 Jan 2016: on 48 releases above the forecast S&P 500 closed the day higher 33 of 48 times; on 48 releases below the forecast S&P 500 closed the day higher 29 of 48 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled ISM manufacturing release is 2 Nov 2026 at 9:00 New York (14:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what S&P 500 and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does S&P 500 move after ISM manufacturing?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 0.22% and the median 4-hour move was 0.28%. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 15 and fell on 7.
What does S&P 500 do when ISM manufacturing beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, S&P 500 rose in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 7, median +0.19%. When it came in below the forecast, S&P 500 rose in the first 30 minutes on 6 of 7, median +0.22%.
Does the first move after ISM manufacturing hold?
On 12 of 22 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next ISM manufacturing release?
2 Nov 2026 at 9:00 New York (14:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.