How does EUR/USD react to the ISM manufacturing PMI?
In the first 30 minutes after the ISM manufacturing PMI, EUR/USD has typically moved 9.4 pips either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 1 Nov 2024 to 1 Oct 2026), and 19 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 12 of 21 releases. When it came in above the forecast, EUR/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 7, median −8.0 pips. When it came in below the forecast, EUR/USD split evenly in the first 30 minutes (up on 3, down on 3 of 7). The largest first-30-minute move was +70 pips on 3 Feb 2025.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (19 pips) is 2.0 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 57% of the time, close to a coin flip. Above forecast prints have moved it more than below ones (median −8.0 pips against 0.0 pips).
The last 12 releases
Each row is one ISM manufacturing release: the figure against the forecast, then EUR/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 (Sep) | 54.5 vs 55 in line | −10 pips | −70 pips | −78 pips |
| 1 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 54.6 vs 55.2 missed | 0.0 pips | −12 pips | −27 pips |
| 3 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 55.6 vs 54 beat | −8.0 pips | −21 pips | −32 pips |
| 1 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 53.3 vs 54 missed | −2.6 pips | −17 pips | −35 pips |
| 1 Jun 2026 (May) | 54 vs 53 beat | +9.4 pips | +27 pips | −13 pips |
| 1 May 2026 (Apr) | 52.7 vs 53 in line | +2.8 pips | −30 pips | −4.1 pips |
| 1 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 52.7 vs 52.5 in line | +16 pips | −14 pips | +20 pips |
| 2 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 52.4 vs 51.8 beat | −33 pips | −18 pips | −66 pips |
| 5 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 47.9 vs 48.3 in line | +16 pips | +38 pips | +10 pips |
| 1 Dec 2025 (Nov) | 48.2 vs 48.6 in line | −6.8 pips | −26 pips | +5.5 pips |
| 3 Nov 2025 (Oct) | 48.7 vs 49.5 missed | +6.6 pips | +4.0 pips | −8.9 pips |
| 1 Oct 2025 (Sep) | 49.1 vs 49 in line | −11 pips | −36 pips | −1.8 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for ISM manufacturing
- ISM manufacturing has landed at 10:00 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 6 of 22 releases, so the drift in has more often pointed the wrong way.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 21 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 4 Jan 2016: on 48 releases above the forecast EUR/USD closed the day lower 30 of 48 times; on 48 releases below the forecast EUR/USD closed the day higher 28 of 48 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled ISM manufacturing release is 2 Nov 2026 at 9:00 New York (14:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what EUR/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does EUR/USD move after ISM manufacturing?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 9.4 pips and the median 4-hour move was 19 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 and fell on 13.
What does EUR/USD do when ISM manufacturing beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, EUR/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 7, median −8.0 pips. When it came in below the forecast, EUR/USD split evenly in the first 30 minutes (up on 3, down on 3 of 7).
Does the first move after ISM manufacturing hold?
On 12 of 21 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next ISM manufacturing release?
2 Nov 2026 at 9:00 New York (14:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.