On the Desk’s published record (133 closed trades since 14 Nov 2025), the EMA board, where the 8, 21, 50 and 200 EMA pullback method is traded on stocks and crypto, won 8 of its 18 closed calls (44%). Its winners averaged +2.26R and its losers −0.97R, an expectancy of +0.52R a trade. Across the whole record the win rate is 44%. A pullback method can win under half the time and still pay, because its winners run further than its losers.
| Board | Closed | Won | Avg winner | Avg loser | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMA board (stocks and crypto) | 18 | 8 (44%) | +2.26R | −0.97R | +0.52R |
| Forex and metals board | 58 | 29 (50%) | +1.60R | −0.86R | +0.40R |
| Short squeeze screen | 49 | 17 (35%) | +2.32R | −0.99R | +0.16R |
| Long-term holds (200-week) | 5 | 2 (40%) | +1.79R | −0.67R | +0.31R |
| Futures (intraday) | 3 | 3 (100%) | +1.51R | none | +1.51R |
| Whole record | 133 | 59 (44%) | +1.90R | −0.93R | +0.35R |
The EMA board is a small sample: 18 closed calls is enough to describe what happened, not enough to pin a long-run figure to the decimal. The forex board and the squeeze screen carry most of the record, which is why the whole-record figure sits beside it.
A strategy breaks even when its hit rate equals the average loser divided by the sum of the average winner and the average loser. For the EMA board that is 0.97R ÷ (2.26R + 0.97R), about 30%. For the whole record it is about 33%. Anything above that line makes money over enough trades; anything below loses it, however good the entries look.
That is why a pullback trader sets the target before the entry. A pullback that is bought near the 21 EMA with the stop under the swing low usually offers two units of reward or more for one of risk, and that ratio, not the hit rate, carries the method through a run of losers.
The trend gate comes first: a long only qualifies while the 50 EMA is above the 200 on the daily chart. The entry is the first daily close back above the 8 and 21 EMAs after a pullback, with the stop beyond the pullback’s low and the target set before the order goes in. The EMA swing strategy guide works through a closed trade step by step.
The record files each trade by the board it came from, not by the chart pattern at entry. So this page reports the EMA board as a whole, the place the pullback method is traded, rather than a hand-picked list of pullback entries. Nothing is filtered out for being a loser.
Every number on this page is computed from the record files when the page is built, with the same rules as the record page: closed trades only, R measured from the original stop as (exit − entry) ÷ (entry − stop), long-term holds counted at the R they booked, and trades in the order they closed. A 0R scratch counts as neither a win nor a loss. When a trade closes on a Sunday update, this page moves with it.
This is one published record, not a law of the market. Past results do not predict future ones, and a different method, market or period will give different numbers.
Every Sunday before the open: analysed swing setups across stocks, forex, gold and crypto with the exact entry, stop and target, an alert when one triggers, the live dashboard and the paid Substack letters.
Get this week’s setupsOne above its break-even line. With winners of about 2.3R and losers of about 1.0R, as on the Desk’s EMA board, that line is about 30%. A higher hit rate with small winners can earn less than a lower one with large winners.
Because the stop sits close to the entry and the target sits further away. More trades touch the near level than the far one, and the method is built to accept that: the losers are capped at about 1R while the winners run to 2R or more.
More than most people think. Over twenty trades a true 45% method can easily show 30% or 60%. Judge a method on a hundred or more closed trades, and on its average winner and loser as well as its hit rate.
No one can promise that. This is what one published record shows, with every loser left in. Your own entries, exits, costs and discipline will give your own figure.