A good R-multiple is one that pays for your losers: your average winner times your win rate has to beat your average loser times your loss rate. On the Desk’s published record (133 closed trades since 14 Nov 2025) the average winner is +1.90R and the average loser −0.93R at a 44% win rate, which comes to +0.35R per trade. As a rule of thumb, a swing method that wins under half the time needs winners of 2R or more.
On this record: 0.44 × 1.90 − 0.53 × 0.93 = +0.35R per trade. (Scratches at 0R are in neither group.) The same figure is the record total, +46.2R, divided by its 133 closed trades.
If every loss is a full 1R, the break-even win rate for a fixed target is 1 ÷ (1 + target R). Above it the method earns; below it, it loses.
| Target | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 1R | 50% |
| 1.5R | 40% |
| 2R | 33% |
| 2.5R | 29% |
| 3R | 25% |
| 4R | 20% |
| Result | Trades | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Lost more than 1R | 12 | 9% |
| Lost 1R (a full stop) | 49 | 37% |
| Lost less than 1R | 10 | 8% |
| Scratch (0R) | 3 | 2% |
| Won up to 1R | 7 | 5% |
| Won 1R to 2R | 21 | 16% |
| Won 2R to 3R | 28 | 21% |
| Won 3R or more | 3 | 2% |
The losers stack up at about −1R because every trade has its stop set before entry; the worst single loss is −1.03R. The winners spread out, with the best at +4.34R. That shape, capped losses and open-ended winners, is what a good R profile looks like.
The R-multiple calculator works out one trade’s R from its levels and your own expectancy from a list of results. The R-multiple guide explains why serious records are kept in R rather than money.
Every number on this page is computed from the record files when the page is built, with the same rules as the record page: closed trades only, R measured from the original stop as (exit − entry) ÷ (entry − stop), long-term holds counted at the R they booked, and trades in the order they closed. A 0R scratch counts as neither a win nor a loss. When a trade closes on a Sunday update, this page moves with it.
This is one published record, not a law of the market. Past results do not predict future ones, and a different method, market or period will give different numbers.
Every Sunday before the open: analysed swing setups across stocks, forex, gold and crypto with the exact entry, stop and target, an alert when one triggers, the live dashboard and the paid Substack letters.
Get this week’s setupsAt a win rate above 34% a 2R target earns money if every loss is held to 1R. Whether it is good depends on how often price reaches it on your setups, so measure both together.
Anything reliably above zero after costs earns over enough trades. On this record it is +0.35R a trade across 133 closed trades; small positive figures add up when the sample is large.
Not blindly. A far target is hit less often. Pick the target the chart supports, such as the next swing high, then check the win rate that target needs.
R = (exit − entry) ÷ (entry − stop) for a long, and the reverse for a short. A trade stopped at its original stop is −1R; one that makes twice its risk is +2R.