On the Desk’s swing record, 27% of trades closed at their target: 35 of 128 swing calls since 14 Nov 2025. 48% were stopped and 25% were closed by hand before either level. With targets 2R or more away a method breaks even at a hit rate near a third, so the trades that reach target pay for the rest.
| Board | Closed | At target | Stopped | Closed by hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMA board (stocks and crypto) | 18 | 5 (28%) | 7 (39%) | 6 (33%) |
| Forex and metals board | 58 | 14 (24%) | 23 (40%) | 21 (36%) |
| Short squeeze screen | 49 | 16 (33%) | 31 (63%) | 2 (4%) |
| Futures (intraday) | 3 | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 3 (100%) |
| All swing calls | 128 | 35 (27%) | 61 (48%) | 32 (25%) |
Some calls never carried a target: the volatility calls on the forex board are managed by hand, and they show up as closed by hand. Counting only the calls that had a target set, 35 of 110 reached it (32%).
Of the 32 swing calls closed before a level was touched, 22 closed in profit and 7 at a loss. Early exits are usually news risk, a weekend, an earnings date or a trade that stopped behaving the way it was planned. They are booked at the price they closed, never at the target they did not reach.
A target 2R or 3R away will be reached less often than a stop 1R away. The method accepts that on purpose: the calls that do reach target averaged +2.19R, so a third of the calls hitting target can carry the stops. Across all swing calls the net result is 44.6R in profit, +0.35R a call.
If your own target hit rate is far lower, the targets may be beyond where price usually turns. Set them at a level the chart supports, such as the last swing high, and size the stop to the market with the ATR stop guide.
Every number on this page is computed from the record files when the page is built, with the same rules as the record page: closed trades only, R measured from the original stop as (exit − entry) ÷ (entry − stop), long-term holds counted at the R they booked, and trades in the order they closed. A 0R scratch counts as neither a win nor a loss. When a trade closes on a Sunday update, this page moves with it.
This is one published record, not a law of the market. Past results do not predict future ones, and a different method, market or period will give different numbers.
Every Sunday before the open: analysed swing setups across stocks, forex, gold and crypto with the exact entry, stop and target, an alert when one triggers, the live dashboard and the paid Substack letters.
Get this week’s setupsOn this record, 27% of swing calls closed at target, 48% were stopped and the rest were closed by hand. With targets 2R or more away, a method breaks even near a third, so a hit rate in that area can still pay.
Only if the chart says so. A closer target lifts the hit rate but cuts what each winner pays; the break-even win rate rises with it. Check both before you change.
Sometimes, for a reason set in advance: a news release, a weekend, an earnings date. Taking profit early because a trade feels good tends to cut the winners that pay for the losers.
Yes. Every closed call on the published record is in them, stopped trades and early exits included.