How does the US 10-year yield react to US CPI?
In the first 30 minutes after US CPI, the US 10-year yield has typically moved 2.3 bp either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 13 Nov 2024 to 14 Oct 2026), and 2.8 bp after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 12 of 23 releases. When it came in hotter than forecast, US 10Y yield rose in the first 30 minutes on 3 of 3, median +10.4 bp. When it came in cooler than forecast, US 10Y yield fell in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 9, median −1.3 bp. The largest first-30-minute move was +10.6 bp on 14 Oct 2026.
What the numbers say
The first half hour has carried most of the move, with the typical 4-hour move 22% larger than the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 52% of the time, close to a coin flip. Surprises in either direction have moved US 10Y yield opposite ways: median +10.4 bp when the figure came in hotter than forecast and −1.3 bp when it came in cooler than forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one US CPI release: the figure against the forecast, then US 10Y yield over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 (Sep) | 3.7% vs 3.6% hotter than forecast | +10.6 bp | +1.3 bp | −2.7 bp |
| 11 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 3.4% vs 3.4% in line | −6.9 bp | −2.8 bp | +3.1 bp |
| 12 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 3.4% vs 3.4% in line | +1.0 bp | +2.2 bp | −0.2 bp |
| 14 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 3.5% vs 3.8% cooler than forecast | −2.1 bp | −5.7 bp | −2.4 bp |
| 10 Jun 2026 (May) | 4.2% vs 4.2% in line | −1.0 bp | −0.6 bp | +1.4 bp |
| 12 May 2026 (Apr) | 3.8% vs 3.7% hotter than forecast | +0.4 bp | +1.6 bp | +5.3 bp |
| 10 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 3.3% vs 3.3% in line | +2.2 bp | +3.2 bp | +2.4 bp |
| 11 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 2.4% vs 2.4% in line | +1.2 bp | +3.9 bp | +7.2 bp |
| 13 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 2.4% vs 2.5% cooler than forecast | −1.3 bp | −4.8 bp | −4.8 bp |
| 13 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 2.7% vs 2.7% in line | −0.6 bp | −1.0 bp | −1.6 bp |
| 18 Dec 2025 (Nov) | 2.7 vs 3.1 cooler than forecast | +1.2 bp | −0.5 bp | −3.5 bp |
| 24 Oct 2025 (Sep) | 3% vs 3.1% cooler than forecast | −2.5 bp | −1.3 bp | +0.6 bp |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for US CPI
- US CPI has landed at 8:30 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 5.2 bp. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 20 Jan 2016: on 43 releases hotter than forecast US 10Y yield closed the day higher 22 of 43 times; on 46 releases cooler than forecast US 10Y yield closed the day lower 31 of 46 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled US CPI release is 10 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what US 10Y yield and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does US 10Y yield move after US CPI?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 2.3 bp and the median 4-hour move was 2.8 bp. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 10 and fell on 13.
What does US 10Y yield do when US CPI beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in hotter than forecast, US 10Y yield rose in the first 30 minutes on 3 of 3, median +10.4 bp. When it came in cooler than forecast, US 10Y yield fell in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 9, median −1.3 bp.
Does the first move after US CPI hold?
On 12 of 23 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next US CPI release?
10 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.