How does the US 10-year yield react to US non-farm payrolls?
In the first 30 minutes after US non-farm payrolls, the US 10-year yield has typically moved 1.6 bp either way (the median of the last 21 releases, 1 Nov 2024 to 2 Oct 2026), and 4.0 bp after 4 hours. The first move held to the 4-hour mark on 16 of 19 releases. When it came in above the forecast, US 10Y yield rose in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 10, median +2.5 bp. When it came in below the forecast, US 10Y yield fell in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 10, median −0.8 bp. The largest first-30-minute move was +7.3 bp on 5 Jun 2026.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (4.0 bp) is 2.5 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction has been a fair guide here: it held to the 4-hour mark 84% of the time. Surprises in either direction have moved US 10Y yield opposite ways: median +2.5 bp when the figure came in above the forecast and −0.8 bp when it came in below the forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one NFP release: the figure against the forecast, then US 10Y yield over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours.
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 (Sep) | 29K vs 90K missed | −0.8 bp | +8.2 bp |
| 4 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 162K vs 56K beat | −0.6 bp | −2.6 bp |
| 7 Aug 2026 (Jul) | -23K vs 80K missed | 0.0 bp | −1.5 bp |
| 2 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 57K vs 110K missed | −3.4 bp | −4.2 bp |
| 5 Jun 2026 (May) | 172K vs 85K beat | +7.3 bp | +7.1 bp |
| 8 May 2026 (Apr) | 115K vs 62K beat | −0.2 bp | −0.6 bp |
| 6 Mar 2026 (Feb) | -92K vs 59K missed | −1.7 bp | −3.1 bp |
| 11 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 130K vs 70K beat | +4.3 bp | +3.2 bp |
| 9 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 50K vs 60K missed | −0.4 bp | −1.4 bp |
| 16 Dec 2025 (Oct) | -105K no forecast | −0.3 bp | −0.7 bp |
| 20 Nov 2025 (Sep) | 119K vs 50K beat | −2.3 bp | −5.0 bp |
| 5 Sep 2025 (Aug) | 22K vs 75K missed | −1.6 bp | −6.6 bp |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast). Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for NFP
- NFP has landed at 8:30 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 7.5 bp. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled NFP release is 6 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what US 10Y yield and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does US 10Y yield move after NFP?
Over the last 21 releases the median first-30-minute move was 1.6 bp and the median 4-hour move was 4.0 bp. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 and fell on 11.
What does US 10Y yield do when NFP beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, US 10Y yield rose in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 10, median +2.5 bp. When it came in below the forecast, US 10Y yield fell in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 10, median −0.8 bp.
Does the first move after NFP hold?
On 16 of 19 releases the first 30 minutes and the 4-hour mark moved the same way.
When is the next NFP release?
6 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.