How does the US 10-year yield react to the FOMC rate decision?
In the first 30 minutes after the FOMC rate decision, the US 10-year yield has typically moved 2.0 bp either way (the median of the last 16 releases, 7 Nov 2024 to 16 Sep 2026). The first move held to the close on 12 of 16 releases. 16 of the 16 prints matched the forecast, so the reaction came from the detail and the outlook more than the headline figure. The largest first-30-minute move was +7.1 bp on 18 Dec 2024.
What the numbers say
The first reaction has been a fair guide here: it held to the close 75% of the time.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one FOMC release: the figure against the forecast, then US 10Y yield over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 4% vs 4% as expected | −1.2 bp | not measured | +1.0 bp |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −2.1 bp | not measured | +1.8 bp |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | +1.8 bp | not measured | +3.5 bp |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | +2.2 bp | not measured | +6.4 bp |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | +3.7 bp | not measured | +5.7 bp |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −0.6 bp | not measured | +2.8 bp |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −1.0 bp | not measured | −2.2 bp |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 4% vs 4% as expected | +4.6 bp | not measured | +7.5 bp |
| 17 Sep 2025 | 4.25% vs 4.25% as expected | +4.6 bp | not measured | +5.0 bp |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 4.5% vs 4.5% as expected | +2.0 bp | not measured | +4.6 bp |
| 18 Jun 2025 | 4.5% vs 4.5% as expected | +2.6 bp | not measured | +0.4 bp |
| 7 May 2025 | 4.5% vs 4.5% as expected | −1.0 bp | not measured | −3.3 bp |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for FOMC
- FOMC has landed at 14:00 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 9 of 16 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 4.4 bp. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled FOMC release is 28 Oct 2026 at 14:00 New York (18:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what US 10Y yield and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does US 10Y yield move after FOMC?
Over the last 16 releases the median first-30-minute move was 2.0 bp. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 and fell on 8.
Does the first move after FOMC hold?
On 12 of 16 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next FOMC release?
28 Oct 2026 at 14:00 New York (18:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.