How does EUR/USD react to US jobless claims?
In the first 30 minutes after US jobless claims, EUR/USD has typically moved 7.8 pips either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 7 May 2026 to 8 Oct 2026), and 16 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 14 of 22 releases. When it came in above the forecast, EUR/USD split evenly in the first 30 minutes (up on 2, down on 2 of 5). When it came in below the forecast, EUR/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 9 of 14, median −3.4 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was +48 pips on 2 Jul 2026.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (16 pips) is 2.1 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 64% of the time, close to a coin flip. Below forecast prints have moved it more than above ones (median −3.4 pips against 0.0 pips).
The last 12 releases
Each row is one Jobless claims release: the figure against the forecast, then EUR/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 (Oct/03) | 197K vs 200K beat | −10 pips | −5.0 pips | +12 pips |
| 1 Oct 2026 (Sep/26) | 197K vs 200K beat | −6.4 pips | −55 pips | −78 pips |
| 24 Sep 2026 (Sep/19) | 197K vs 201K beat | +6.5 pips | +16 pips | −9.3 pips |
| 17 Sep 2026 (Sep/12) | 196K vs 208K beat | −1.3 pips | −16 pips | +6.7 pips |
| 10 Sep 2026 (Sep/05) | 206K vs 205K in line | −15 pips | +5.4 pips | −24 pips |
| 3 Sep 2026 (Aug/29) | 206K vs 205K in line | +8.1 pips | +19 pips | +44 pips |
| 27 Aug 2026 (Aug/22) | 203K vs 208K beat | −4.1 pips | +8.1 pips | −1.9 pips |
| 20 Aug 2026 (Aug/15) | 206K vs 210K beat | +5.5 pips | −12 pips | +12 pips |
| 13 Aug 2026 (Aug/08) | 209K vs 202K missed | +11 pips | −6.6 pips | +5.3 pips |
| 6 Aug 2026 (Aug/01) | 199K vs 202K beat | −2.7 pips | −24 pips | −33 pips |
| 30 Jul 2026 (Jul/25) | 197K vs 200K beat | −9.2 pips | +48 pips | +58 pips |
| 23 Jul 2026 (Jul/18) | 187K vs 212K beat | −7.8 pips | −21 pips | −37 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for Jobless claims
- Jobless claims has landed at 8:30 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 10 of 22 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 16 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 7 Jan 2016: on 191 releases above the forecast EUR/USD closed the day higher 102 of 191 times; on 267 releases below the forecast EUR/USD closed the day lower 150 of 267 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled Jobless claims release is 22 Oct 2026 at 8:30 New York (12:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what EUR/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does EUR/USD move after Jobless claims?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 7.8 pips and the median 4-hour move was 16 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 9 and fell on 13.
What does EUR/USD do when Jobless claims beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, EUR/USD split evenly in the first 30 minutes (up on 2, down on 2 of 5). When it came in below the forecast, EUR/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 9 of 14, median −3.4 pips.
Does the first move after Jobless claims hold?
On 14 of 22 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next Jobless claims release?
22 Oct 2026 at 8:30 New York (12:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.