How does EUR/USD react to US non-farm payrolls?
In the first 30 minutes after US non-farm payrolls, EUR/USD has typically moved 19 pips either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 1 Nov 2024 to 2 Oct 2026), and 22 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the 4-hour mark on 16 of 22 releases. When it came in above the forecast, EUR/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 12, median −23 pips. When it came in below the forecast, EUR/USD rose in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 10, median +8.8 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was +146 pips on 1 Aug 2025.
What the numbers say
The first half hour has carried most of the move, with the typical 4-hour move 19% larger than the first 30 minutes. The first reaction has been a fair guide here: it held to the 4-hour mark 73% of the time. Surprises in either direction have moved EUR/USD opposite ways: median −23 pips when the figure came in above the forecast and +8.8 pips when it came in below the forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one NFP release: the figure against the forecast, then EUR/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours.
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 (Sep) | 29K vs 90K missed | +7.6 pips | −2.5 pips |
| 4 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 162K vs 56K beat | +8.1 pips | +31 pips |
| 7 Aug 2026 (Jul) | -23K vs 80K missed | +9.4 pips | −1.3 pips |
| 2 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 57K vs 110K missed | +48 pips | +44 pips |
| 5 Jun 2026 (May) | 172K vs 85K beat | −55 pips | −112 pips |
| 8 May 2026 (Apr) | 115K vs 62K beat | +8.3 pips | +8.3 pips |
| 3 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 178K vs 60K beat | −16 pips | −24 pips |
| 6 Mar 2026 (Feb) | -92K vs 59K missed | 0.0 pips | +48 pips |
| 11 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 130K vs 70K beat | −38 pips | −17 pips |
| 9 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 50K vs 60K missed | +8.1 pips | −8.1 pips |
| 16 Dec 2025 (Oct) | -105K no forecast | −2.8 pips | −9.7 pips |
| 20 Nov 2025 (Sep) | 119K vs 50K beat | +15 pips | +21 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast). Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for NFP
- NFP has landed at 8:30 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 9 of 22 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 39 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled NFP release is 6 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what EUR/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does EUR/USD move after NFP?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 19 pips and the median 4-hour move was 22 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 11 and fell on 11.
What does EUR/USD do when NFP beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, EUR/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 12, median −23 pips. When it came in below the forecast, EUR/USD rose in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 10, median +8.8 pips.
Does the first move after NFP hold?
On 16 of 22 releases the first 30 minutes and the 4-hour mark moved the same way.
When is the next NFP release?
6 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.