How does EUR/USD react to the ECB rate decision?
In the first 30 minutes after the ECB rate decision, EUR/USD has typically moved 12 pips either way (the median of the last 15 releases, 12 Dec 2024 to 10 Sep 2026), and 15 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the 4-hour mark on 9 of 14 releases. 15 of the 15 prints matched the forecast, so the reaction came from the detail and the outlook more than the headline figure. The largest first-30-minute move was +52 pips on 30 Jan 2025.
What the numbers say
The first half hour has carried most of the move, with the typical 4-hour move 25% larger than the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the 4-hour mark 64% of the time, close to a coin flip.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one ECB release: the figure against the forecast, then EUR/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours.
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 2.65% vs 2.65% as expected | −12 pips | +11 pips |
| 23 Jul 2026 | 2.4% vs 2.4% as expected | −7.8 pips | −21 pips |
| 11 Jun 2026 | 2.4% vs 2.4% as expected | 0.0 pips | −24 pips |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 2.15% vs 2.15% as expected | −11 pips | +23 pips |
| 19 Mar 2026 | 2.15% vs 2.15% as expected | +32 pips | +50 pips |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 2.15% vs 2.15% as expected | +8.4 pips | −1.4 pips |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 2.15% vs 2.15% as expected | +34 pips | +15 pips |
| 30 Oct 2025 | 2.15% vs 2.15% as expected | +23 pips | +15 pips |
| 11 Sep 2025 | 2.15% vs 2.15% as expected | +33 pips | +45 pips |
| 24 Jul 2025 | 2.15% vs 2.15% as expected | −22 pips | +8.3 pips |
| 5 Jun 2025 | 2.15% vs 2.15% as expected | +1.3 pips | +12 pips |
| 17 Apr 2025 | 2.4% vs 2.4% as expected | +10 pips | +7.7 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast). Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for ECB
- ECB has landed at 14:15 Frankfurt on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 6 of 14 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 29 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled ECB release is 29 Oct 2026 at 14:15 Frankfurt (13:15 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what EUR/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does EUR/USD move after ECB?
Over the last 15 releases the median first-30-minute move was 12 pips and the median 4-hour move was 15 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 9 and fell on 5.
Does the first move after ECB hold?
On 9 of 14 releases the first 30 minutes and the 4-hour mark moved the same way.
When is the next ECB release?
29 Oct 2026 at 14:15 Frankfurt (13:15 UTC), on the public economic calendar.