How does GBP/USD react to UK CPI?
In the first 30 minutes after UK CPI, GBP/USD has typically moved 7.6 pips either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 20 Nov 2024 to 16 Sep 2026), and 19 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 17 of 23 releases. When it came in hotter than forecast, GBP/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 6, median −1.4 pips. When it came in cooler than forecast, GBP/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 6 of 8, median −9.9 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was −33 pips on 17 Dec 2025.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (19 pips) is 2.4 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction has been a fair guide here: it held to the close 74% of the time. Cooler than forecast prints have moved it more than hotter ones (median −9.9 pips against −1.4 pips).
The last 12 releases
Each row is one UK CPI release: the figure against the forecast, then GBP/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 3.1% vs 3.1% in line | −11 pips | −22 pips | −89 pips |
| 19 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 2.9% vs 2.9% in line | +11 pips | +15 pips | +63 pips |
| 22 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 2.6% vs 2.7% cooler than forecast | −3.6 pips | −12 pips | −2.9 pips |
| 17 Jun 2026 (May) | 2.8% vs 3% cooler than forecast | −5.9 pips | −3.6 pips | −120 pips |
| 20 May 2026 (Apr) | 2.8% vs 3% cooler than forecast | +2.9 pips | −1.6 pips | +42 pips |
| 22 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 3.3% vs 3.3% in line | −4.9 pips | −5.0 pips | −14 pips |
| 25 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 3% vs 3% in line | −1.7 pips | +23 pips | −51 pips |
| 18 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 3% vs 3% in line | −11 pips | −7.9 pips | −69 pips |
| 21 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 3.4% vs 3.3% hotter than forecast | +12 pips | −25 pips | −23 pips |
| 17 Dec 2025 (Nov) | 3.2% vs 3.5% cooler than forecast | −33 pips | −21 pips | −52 pips |
| 19 Nov 2025 (Oct) | 3.6% vs 3.6% in line | +1.4 pips | −39 pips | −87 pips |
| 22 Oct 2025 (Sep) | 3.8% vs 4% cooler than forecast | −17 pips | −27 pips | −16 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for UK CPI
- UK CPI has landed at 7:00 London on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 12 of 23 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 20 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 19 Jan 2016: on 51 releases hotter than forecast GBP/USD closed the day higher 28 of 51 times; on 49 releases cooler than forecast GBP/USD closed the day lower 34 of 49 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled UK CPI release is 18 Nov 2026 at 7:00 London (07:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what GBP/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does GBP/USD move after UK CPI?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 7.6 pips and the median 4-hour move was 19 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 6 and fell on 17.
What does GBP/USD do when UK CPI beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in hotter than forecast, GBP/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 6, median −1.4 pips. When it came in cooler than forecast, GBP/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 6 of 8, median −9.9 pips.
Does the first move after UK CPI hold?
On 17 of 23 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next UK CPI release?
18 Nov 2026 at 7:00 London (07:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.