How does GBP/USD react to the Bank of England rate decision?
In the first 30 minutes after the Bank of England rate decision, GBP/USD has typically moved 19 pips either way (the median of the last 16 releases, 7 Nov 2024 to 17 Sep 2026), and 38 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 10 of 16 releases. 16 of the 16 prints matched the forecast, so the reaction came from the detail and the outlook more than the headline figure. The largest first-30-minute move was +62 pips on 8 May 2025.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (38 pips) is 2.1 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 63% of the time, close to a coin flip.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one BoE release: the figure against the forecast, then GBP/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −27 pips | −37 pips | −26 pips |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −22 pips | +27 pips | +92 pips |
| 18 Jun 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −14 pips | +27 pips | −99 pips |
| 30 Apr 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −14 pips | +56 pips | +114 pips |
| 19 Mar 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −4.9 pips | +52 pips | +160 pips |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | +15 pips | −40 pips | −125 pips |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | +45 pips | +44 pips | +9.7 pips |
| 6 Nov 2025 | 4% vs 4% as expected | +29 pips | +32 pips | +88 pips |
| 18 Sep 2025 | 4% vs 4% as expected | −35 pips | −102 pips | −73 pips |
| 7 Aug 2025 | 4% vs 4% as expected | +7.4 pips | −3.2 pips | +94 pips |
| 19 Jun 2025 | 4.25% vs 4.25% as expected | +36 pips | +14 pips | +64 pips |
| 8 May 2025 | 4.25% vs 4.25% as expected | +62 pips | +39 pips | −51 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for BoE
- BoE has landed at 12:00 London on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 8 of 16 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 35 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled BoE release is 5 Nov 2026 at 12:00 London (12:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what GBP/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does GBP/USD move after BoE?
Over the last 16 releases the median first-30-minute move was 19 pips and the median 4-hour move was 38 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 and fell on 8.
Does the first move after BoE hold?
On 10 of 16 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next BoE release?
5 Nov 2026 at 12:00 London (12:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.