How does GBP/USD react to UK GDP?
In the first 30 minutes after UK GDP, GBP/USD has typically moved 9.3 pips either way (the median of the last 24 releases, 15 Nov 2024 to 15 Oct 2026), and 9.7 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 14 of 23 releases. When it came in above the forecast, GBP/USD rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 10, median +6.0 pips. When it came in below the forecast, GBP/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 9, median −13 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was +34 pips on 13 Nov 2025.
What the numbers say
Most of the reaction has come in the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (9.7 pips) is barely larger than the first 30 minutes (9.3 pips). The first reaction held to the close 61% of the time, close to a coin flip. Surprises in either direction have moved GBP/USD opposite ways: median +6.0 pips when the figure came in above the forecast and −13 pips when it came in below the forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one UK GDP release: the figure against the forecast, then GBP/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 (Aug) | 0.1% vs -0.1% beat | +2.3 pips | not measured | not measured |
| 11 Sep 2026 (Jul) | 0.4% vs 0% beat | +7.9 pips | −6.6 pips | +15 pips |
| 13 Aug 2026 (Jun) | 0.3% vs 0% beat | −12 pips | −4.2 pips | −7.6 pips |
| 16 Jul 2026 (May) | 0.1% vs 0.1% in line | +8.8 pips | −24 pips | −61 pips |
| 12 Jun 2026 (Apr) | -0.1% vs -0.1% in line | +8.6 pips | +23 pips | +41 pips |
| 14 May 2026 (Mar) | 0.3% vs -0.2% beat | +7.3 pips | −9.7 pips | −136 pips |
| 16 Apr 2026 (Feb) | 0.5% vs 0.1% beat | +4.7 pips | −34 pips | −52 pips |
| 13 Mar 2026 (Jan) | 0% vs 0.2% missed | −30 pips | −46 pips | −103 pips |
| 12 Feb 2026 (Dec) | 0.1% vs 0.1% in line | +21 pips | +25 pips | −4.3 pips |
| 15 Jan 2026 (Nov) | 0.3% vs 0.1% beat | +0.4 pips | −12 pips | −59 pips |
| 12 Dec 2025 (Oct) | -0.1% vs 0.1% missed | −0.5 pips | −6.4 pips | −25 pips |
| 13 Nov 2025 (Sep) | -0.1% vs 0% missed | +34 pips | +44 pips | +23 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for UK GDP
- UK GDP has landed at 7:00 London on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 7 of 21 releases, so the drift in has more often pointed the wrong way.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 18 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 13 Oct 2021: on 25 releases above the forecast GBP/USD closed the day higher 13 of 25 times; on 23 releases below the forecast GBP/USD closed the day lower 14 of 23 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled UK GDP release is 12 Nov 2026 at 7:00 London (07:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what GBP/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does GBP/USD move after UK GDP?
Over the last 24 releases the median first-30-minute move was 9.3 pips and the median 4-hour move was 9.7 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 14 and fell on 10.
What does GBP/USD do when UK GDP beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, GBP/USD rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 10, median +6.0 pips. When it came in below the forecast, GBP/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 9, median −13 pips.
Does the first move after UK GDP hold?
On 14 of 23 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next UK GDP release?
12 Nov 2026 at 7:00 London (07:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.