How does NZD/USD react to the RBNZ rate decision?
In the first 30 minutes after the RBNZ rate decision, NZD/USD has typically moved 11 pips either way (the median of the last 13 releases, 27 Nov 2024 to 2 Sep 2026), and 20 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 9 of 12 releases. 12 of the 13 prints matched the forecast, so the reaction came from the detail and the outlook more than the headline figure. The largest first-30-minute move was +28 pips on 26 Nov 2025.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (20 pips) is 1.8 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction has been a fair guide here: it held to the close 75% of the time.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one RBNZ release: the figure against the forecast, then NZD/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | 2.75% vs 2.75% as expected | −25 pips | −32 pips | −41 pips |
| 8 Jul 2026 | 2.5% vs 2.5% as expected | +7.1 pips | +24 pips | +42 pips |
| 27 May 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | +11 pips | +10 pips | +49 pips |
| 8 Apr 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | −9.4 pips | +28 pips | +13 pips |
| 18 Feb 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | 0.0 pips | −20 pips | −81 pips |
| 26 Nov 2025 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | +28 pips | +48 pips | +79 pips |
| 8 Oct 2025 | 2.5% vs 2.75% lower than expected | −7.0 pips | −14 pips | −13 pips |
| 20 Aug 2025 | 3% vs 3% as expected | −28 pips | −30 pips | −70 pips |
| 9 Jul 2025 | 3.25% vs 3.25% as expected | −18 pips | −2.9 pips | +6.1 pips |
| 28 May 2025 | 3.25% vs 3.25% as expected | +16 pips | +22 pips | +6.4 pips |
| 9 Apr 2025 | 3.5% vs 3.5% as expected | −6.1 pips | −1.5 pips | +123 pips |
| 19 Feb 2025 | 3.75% vs 3.75% as expected | −9.4 pips | +16 pips | −3.1 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for RBNZ
- RBNZ has landed at 14:00 Wellington on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 10 of 13 releases, so the drift in has more often than not pointed the right way.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 25 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled RBNZ release is 28 Oct 2026 at 14:00 Wellington (01:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what NZD/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does NZD/USD move after RBNZ?
Over the last 13 releases the median first-30-minute move was 11 pips and the median 4-hour move was 20 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 5 and fell on 7.
Does the first move after RBNZ hold?
On 9 of 12 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next RBNZ release?
28 Oct 2026 at 14:00 Wellington (01:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.