How does USD/CAD react to Canada employment change?
In the first 30 minutes after Canada employment change, USD/CAD has typically moved 23 pips either way (the median of the last 24 releases, 8 Nov 2024 to 9 Oct 2026), and 24 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 16 of 24 releases. When it came in above the forecast, USD/CAD fell in the first 30 minutes on 10 of 13, median −8.4 pips. When it came in below the forecast, USD/CAD rose in the first 30 minutes on 9 of 11, median +25 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was +76 pips on 4 Sep 2026.
What the numbers say
The first half hour has carried most of the move, with the typical 4-hour move 5% larger than the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 67% of the time, close to a coin flip. Surprises in either direction have moved USD/CAD opposite ways: median −8.4 pips when the figure came in above the forecast and +25 pips when it came in below the forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one Canada jobs release: the figure against the forecast, then USD/CAD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 (Sep) | -68.3K vs 7K missed | +52 pips | +42 pips | +34 pips |
| 4 Sep 2026 (Aug) | -41.7K vs 15K missed | +76 pips | +49 pips | +46 pips |
| 7 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 75.1K vs 15K beat | −53 pips | −66 pips | −62 pips |
| 10 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 18.2K vs 10K beat | −8.4 pips | −19 pips | +0.3 pips |
| 5 Jun 2026 (May) | 88K vs 10K beat | +15 pips | +53 pips | +38 pips |
| 8 May 2026 (Apr) | -17.7K vs 15K missed | +47 pips | +36 pips | +24 pips |
| 10 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 14.1K vs 15K missed | −3.6 pips | +4.5 pips | +53 pips |
| 13 Mar 2026 (Feb) | -83.9K vs 10K missed | +36 pips | +67 pips | +81 pips |
| 6 Feb 2026 (Jan) | -24.8K vs 7K missed | −13 pips | −25 pips | −55 pips |
| 9 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 8.2K vs -5K beat | −3.8 pips | +12 pips | +48 pips |
| 5 Dec 2025 (Nov) | 53.6K vs -5K beat | −44 pips | −71 pips | −125 pips |
| 7 Nov 2025 (Oct) | 66.6K vs -2.5K beat | −47 pips | −36 pips | −69 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for Canada jobs
- Canada jobs has landed at 8:30 Toronto on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 15 of 24 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 53 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 8 Jan 2016: on 78 releases above the forecast USD/CAD closed the day lower 46 of 78 times; on 52 releases below the forecast USD/CAD closed the day higher 32 of 52 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled Canada jobs release is 6 Nov 2026 at 8:30 Toronto (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what USD/CAD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does USD/CAD move after Canada jobs?
Over the last 24 releases the median first-30-minute move was 23 pips and the median 4-hour move was 24 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 12 and fell on 12.
What does USD/CAD do when Canada jobs beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, USD/CAD fell in the first 30 minutes on 10 of 13, median −8.4 pips. When it came in below the forecast, USD/CAD rose in the first 30 minutes on 9 of 11, median +25 pips.
Does the first move after Canada jobs hold?
On 16 of 24 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next Canada jobs release?
6 Nov 2026 at 8:30 Toronto (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.