How does the Nikkei 225 react to the Bank of Japan rate decision?
In the first 30 minutes after the Bank of Japan rate decision, the Nikkei 225 has typically moved 0.19% either way (the median of the last 14 releases, 31 Oct 2024 to 16 Jun 2026), and 0.34% after 4 hours. The first move held to the 4-hour mark on 9 of 13 releases. 14 of the 14 prints matched the forecast, so the reaction came from the detail and the outlook more than the headline figure. The largest first-30-minute move was −0.54% on 19 Sep 2025.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (0.34%) is 1.8 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the 4-hour mark 69% of the time, close to a coin flip.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one BoJ release: the figure against the forecast, then Nikkei 225 over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours.
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026 | 1% vs 1% as expected | +0.28% | −0.20% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 0.75% vs 0.75% as expected | −0.24% | −0.48% |
| 19 Mar 2026 | 0.75% vs 0.75% as expected | −0.20% | −0.85% |
| 23 Jan 2026 | 0.75% vs 0.75% as expected | +0.08% | −0.23% |
| 19 Dec 2025 | 0.75% vs 0.75% as expected | −0.26% | −0.24% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | +0.21% | −0.38% |
| 19 Sep 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | −0.54% | not measured |
| 31 Jul 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | +0.14% | +0.34% |
| 17 Jun 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | −0.04% | +0.02% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | +0.18% | +0.46% |
| 19 Mar 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | −0.16% | −0.68% |
| 24 Jan 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | −0.18% | −0.64% |
Sources: Yahoo Finance hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast). Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for BoJ
- BoJ has landed at 12:00 Tokyo on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 0.38%. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled BoJ release is 30 Oct 2026 at 12:00 Tokyo (03:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what Nikkei 225 and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does Nikkei 225 move after BoJ?
Over the last 14 releases the median first-30-minute move was 0.19% and the median 4-hour move was 0.34%. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 5 and fell on 9.
Does the first move after BoJ hold?
On 9 of 13 releases the first 30 minutes and the 4-hour mark moved the same way.
When is the next BoJ release?
30 Oct 2026 at 12:00 Tokyo (03:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.