How does AUD/USD react to the RBA rate decision?
In the first 30 minutes after the RBA rate decision, AUD/USD has typically moved 8.9 pips either way (the median of the last 16 releases, 5 Nov 2024 to 29 Sep 2026), and 14 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the 4-hour mark on 11 of 16 releases. 15 of the 16 prints matched the forecast, so the reaction came from the detail and the outlook more than the headline figure. The largest first-30-minute move was +62 pips on 3 Feb 2026.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (14 pips) is 1.6 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the 4-hour mark 69% of the time, close to a coin flip.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one RBA release: the figure against the forecast, then AUD/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours.
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 4.6% vs 4.6% as expected | −6.9 pips | −36 pips |
| 11 Aug 2026 | 4.35% vs 4.35% as expected | +2.0 pips | +4.0 pips |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 4.35% vs 4.35% as expected | −11 pips | −1.0 pips |
| 5 May 2026 | 4.35% vs 4.35% as expected | −2.6 pips | +0.5 pips |
| 17 Mar 2026 | 4.1% vs 4.1% as expected | −11 pips | −8.2 pips |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 3.85% vs 3.85% as expected | +62 pips | +55 pips |
| 9 Dec 2025 | 3.6% vs 3.6% as expected | −1.8 pips | +14 pips |
| 4 Nov 2025 | 3.6% vs 3.6% as expected | +3.0 pips | −16 pips |
| 30 Sep 2025 | 3.6% vs 3.6% as expected | +16 pips | +13 pips |
| 12 Aug 2025 | 3.6% vs 3.6% as expected | −0.4 pips | −15 pips |
| 8 Jul 2025 | 3.85% vs 3.6% higher than expected | +28 pips | +29 pips |
| 20 May 2025 | 3.85% vs 3.85% as expected | −22 pips | −25 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast). Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for RBA
- RBA has landed at 14:30 Sydney on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 8 of 16 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 19 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled RBA release is 3 Nov 2026 at 14:30 Sydney (03:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what AUD/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does AUD/USD move after RBA?
Over the last 16 releases the median first-30-minute move was 8.9 pips and the median 4-hour move was 14 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 7 and fell on 9.
Does the first move after RBA hold?
On 11 of 16 releases the first 30 minutes and the 4-hour mark moved the same way.
When is the next RBA release?
3 Nov 2026 at 14:30 Sydney (03:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.