How does USD/CAD react to the Bank of Canada rate decision?
In the first 30 minutes after the Bank of Canada rate decision, USD/CAD has typically moved 15 pips either way (the median of the last 16 releases, 23 Oct 2024 to 2 Sep 2026), and 12 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 8 of 16 releases. 16 of the 16 prints matched the forecast, so the reaction came from the detail and the outlook more than the headline figure. The largest first-30-minute move was −44 pips on 11 Dec 2024.
What the numbers say
Most of the reaction has come in the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (12 pips) is barely larger than the first 30 minutes (15 pips). The first reaction held to the close 50% of the time, close to a coin flip.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one BoC release: the figure against the forecast, then USD/CAD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | −26 pips | −56 pips | −50 pips |
| 15 Jul 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | +12 pips | −22 pips | −18 pips |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | −21 pips | −7.1 pips | −7.1 pips |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | +21 pips | −3.7 pips | −7.0 pips |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | +2.5 pips | −12 pips | +40 pips |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | −3.1 pips | +33 pips | −52 pips |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | +18 pips | −12 pips | −56 pips |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 2.25% vs 2.25% as expected | −11 pips | −31 pips | +2.4 pips |
| 17 Sep 2025 | 2.5% vs 2.5% as expected | +5.4 pips | +7.7 pips | +31 pips |
| 30 Jul 2025 | 2.75% vs 2.75% as expected | −1.9 pips | −1.0 pips | +51 pips |
| 4 Jun 2025 | 2.75% vs 2.75% as expected | +8.7 pips | −40 pips | −36 pips |
| 16 Apr 2025 | 2.75% vs 2.75% as expected | −30 pips | −20 pips | −97 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for BoC
- BoC has landed at 9:45 Toronto on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 8 of 16 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 44 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled BoC release is 28 Oct 2026 at 9:45 Toronto (13:45 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what USD/CAD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does USD/CAD move after BoC?
Over the last 16 releases the median first-30-minute move was 15 pips and the median 4-hour move was 12 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 7 and fell on 9.
Does the first move after BoC hold?
On 8 of 16 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next BoC release?
28 Oct 2026 at 9:45 Toronto (13:45 UTC), on the public economic calendar.