How does USD/JPY react to the Bank of Japan rate decision?
In the first 30 minutes after the Bank of Japan rate decision, USD/JPY has typically moved 28 pips either way (the median of the last 16 releases, 31 Oct 2024 to 18 Sep 2026), and 20 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the 4-hour mark on 12 of 16 releases. 16 of the 16 prints matched the forecast, so the reaction came from the detail and the outlook more than the headline figure. The largest first-30-minute move was +64 pips on 30 Oct 2025.
What the numbers say
Most of the reaction has come in the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (20 pips) is barely larger than the first 30 minutes (28 pips). The first reaction has been a fair guide here: it held to the 4-hour mark 75% of the time.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one BoJ release: the figure against the forecast, then USD/JPY over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours.
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 1.25% vs 1.25% as expected | +27 pips | +20 pips |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 1% vs 1% as expected | +34 pips | −20 pips |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 1% vs 1% as expected | +7.4 pips | +7.4 pips |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 0.75% vs 0.75% as expected | −44 pips | −16 pips |
| 19 Mar 2026 | 0.75% vs 0.75% as expected | −2.8 pips | +1.1 pips |
| 23 Jan 2026 | 0.75% vs 0.75% as expected | +3.3 pips | +28 pips |
| 19 Dec 2025 | 0.75% vs 0.75% as expected | +4.1 pips | +18 pips |
| 30 Oct 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | +64 pips | +102 pips |
| 19 Sep 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | −36 pips | −4.9 pips |
| 31 Jul 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | −8.9 pips | +4.0 pips |
| 17 Jun 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | −28 pips | −5.4 pips |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.5% vs 0.5% as expected | +60 pips | +150 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast). Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for BoJ
- BoJ has landed at 12:00 Tokyo on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 7 of 16 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 48 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled BoJ release is 30 Oct 2026 at 12:00 Tokyo (03:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what USD/JPY and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does USD/JPY move after BoJ?
Over the last 16 releases the median first-30-minute move was 28 pips and the median 4-hour move was 20 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 and fell on 8.
Does the first move after BoJ hold?
On 12 of 16 releases the first 30 minutes and the 4-hour mark moved the same way.
When is the next BoJ release?
30 Oct 2026 at 12:00 Tokyo (03:00 UTC), on the public economic calendar.