How does AUD/USD react to Australia employment change?
In the first 30 minutes after Australia employment change, AUD/USD has typically moved 11 pips either way (the median of the last 24 releases, 14 Nov 2024 to 15 Oct 2026), and 20 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 13 of 24 releases. When it came in above the forecast, AUD/USD rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 10, median +12 pips. When it came in below the forecast, AUD/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 9 of 14, median −6.7 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was +34 pips on 22 Jan 2026.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (20 pips) is 1.7 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 54% of the time, close to a coin flip. Surprises in either direction have moved AUD/USD opposite ways: median +12 pips when the figure came in above the forecast and −6.7 pips when it came in below the forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one Australia jobs release: the figure against the forecast, then AUD/USD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 (Sep) | -39.3K vs 20K missed | +0.5 pips | −0.5 pips | −65 pips |
| 24 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 39.5K vs 20K beat | −3.0 pips | +9.9 pips | −30 pips |
| 20 Aug 2026 (Jul) | -15.8K vs 15K missed | +5.1 pips | +4.6 pips | −2.4 pips |
| 23 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 76.3K vs 15K beat | +17 pips | +21 pips | −23 pips |
| 25 Jun 2026 (May) | 40.3K vs 30K beat | −2.9 pips | +7.6 pips | +6.3 pips |
| 21 May 2026 (Apr) | -18.6K vs 17.5K missed | −25 pips | −19 pips | −4.3 pips |
| 16 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 17.9K vs 20K missed | +1.6 pips | +13 pips | −17 pips |
| 19 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 48.9K vs 20.3K beat | +12 pips | +12 pips | +52 pips |
| 19 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 17.8K vs 20K missed | +4.5 pips | +20 pips | +13 pips |
| 22 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 65.2K vs 30K beat | +34 pips | +51 pips | +85 pips |
| 11 Dec 2025 (Nov) | -21.3K vs 20K missed | −11 pips | −36 pips | −11 pips |
| 13 Nov 2025 (Oct) | 42.2K vs 20K beat | +17 pips | +20 pips | −9.9 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for Australia jobs
- Australia jobs has landed at 11:30 Sydney on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 9 of 24 releases, so the drift in has more often pointed the wrong way.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 17 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 14 Jan 2016: on 75 releases above the forecast AUD/USD closed the day lower 38 of 75 times; on 53 releases below the forecast AUD/USD closed the day lower 37 of 53 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled Australia jobs release is 19 Nov 2026 at 11:30 Sydney (00:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what AUD/USD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does AUD/USD move after Australia jobs?
Over the last 24 releases the median first-30-minute move was 11 pips and the median 4-hour move was 20 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 13 and fell on 11.
What does AUD/USD do when Australia jobs beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, AUD/USD rose in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 10, median +12 pips. When it came in below the forecast, AUD/USD fell in the first 30 minutes on 9 of 14, median −6.7 pips.
Does the first move after Australia jobs hold?
On 13 of 24 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next Australia jobs release?
19 Nov 2026 at 11:30 Sydney (00:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.