How does USD/CAD react to Canada CPI?
In the first 30 minutes after Canada CPI, USD/CAD has typically moved 13 pips either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 19 Nov 2024 to 14 Sep 2026), and 15 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 16 of 22 releases. When it came in hotter than forecast, USD/CAD fell in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 7, median −13 pips. When it came in cooler than forecast, USD/CAD rose in the first 30 minutes on 10 of 11, median +9.6 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was +28 pips on 15 Apr 2025.
What the numbers say
The first half hour has carried most of the move, with the typical 4-hour move 16% larger than the first 30 minutes. The first reaction has been a fair guide here: it held to the close 73% of the time. Surprises in either direction have moved USD/CAD opposite ways: median −13 pips when the figure came in hotter than forecast and +9.6 pips when it came in cooler than forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one Canada CPI release: the figure against the forecast, then USD/CAD over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 3% vs 3% in line | +14 pips | +1.3 pips | +34 pips |
| 17 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 3% vs 2.9% hotter than forecast | −6.0 pips | +11 pips | −0.7 pips |
| 20 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 2.8% vs 2.9% cooler than forecast | +9.6 pips | +25 pips | +52 pips |
| 22 Jun 2026 (May) | 3.2% vs 3% hotter than forecast | −16 pips | −3.4 pips | −17 pips |
| 19 May 2026 (Apr) | 2.8% vs 3.1% cooler than forecast | +13 pips | +3.6 pips | +11 pips |
| 20 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 2.4% vs 2.5% cooler than forecast | +1.7 pips | −40 pips | −63 pips |
| 16 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 1.8% vs 1.9% cooler than forecast | +9.1 pips | +1.1 pips | −23 pips |
| 17 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 2.3% vs 2.4% cooler than forecast | +19 pips | +1.1 pips | +1.5 pips |
| 19 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 2.4% vs 2.2% hotter than forecast | −3.1 pips | −26 pips | −26 pips |
| 15 Dec 2025 (Nov) | 2.2% vs 2.3% cooler than forecast | +17 pips | +15 pips | +1.1 pips |
| 17 Nov 2025 (Oct) | 2.2% no forecast | +8.0 pips | −0.6 pips | not measured |
| 21 Oct 2025 (Sep) | 2.4% vs 2.3% hotter than forecast | −19 pips | −36 pips | −13 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for Canada CPI
- Canada CPI has landed at 8:30 Toronto on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 13 of 20 releases, so the drift in has more often than not pointed the right way.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 27 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 22 Jan 2016: on 45 releases hotter than forecast USD/CAD closed the day lower 26 of 45 times; on 52 releases cooler than forecast USD/CAD closed the day higher 30 of 52 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled Canada CPI release is 16 Nov 2026 at 8:30 Toronto (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what USD/CAD and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does USD/CAD move after Canada CPI?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 13 pips and the median 4-hour move was 15 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 13 and fell on 10.
What does USD/CAD do when Canada CPI beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in hotter than forecast, USD/CAD fell in the first 30 minutes on 7 of 7, median −13 pips. When it came in cooler than forecast, USD/CAD rose in the first 30 minutes on 10 of 11, median +9.6 pips.
Does the first move after Canada CPI hold?
On 16 of 22 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next Canada CPI release?
16 Nov 2026 at 8:30 Toronto (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.