How does USD/JPY react to Japan CPI?
In the first 30 minutes after Japan CPI, USD/JPY has typically moved 5.7 pips either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 21 Nov 2024 to 17 Sep 2026), and 20 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the 4-hour mark on 16 of 23 releases. The largest first-30-minute move was −32 pips on 21 Nov 2024.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (20 pips) is 3.6 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the 4-hour mark 70% of the time, close to a coin flip.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one Japan CPI release: the figure against the forecast, then USD/JPY over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 1.9% no forecast | +18 pips | +96 pips | not measured |
| 20 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 1.9% no forecast | −0.8 pips | +9.7 pips | not measured |
| 23 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 1.7% no forecast | −0.4 pips | −6.5 pips | not measured |
| 18 Jun 2026 (May) | 1.5% no forecast | +2.8 pips | −4.2 pips | not measured |
| 21 May 2026 (Apr) | 1.4% no forecast | +2.6 pips | +3.7 pips | not measured |
| 23 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 1.5% no forecast | +5.7 pips | +7.4 pips | not measured |
| 23 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 1.3% no forecast | +17 pips | +34 pips | not measured |
| 19 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 1.5% no forecast | +25 pips | +25 pips | not measured |
| 22 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 2.1% no forecast | +11 pips | +23 pips | not measured |
| 18 Dec 2025 (Nov) | 2.9% no forecast | +2.9 pips | +29 pips | not measured |
| 20 Nov 2025 (Oct) | 3% no forecast | −7.6 pips | −11 pips | not measured |
| 23 Oct 2025 (Sep) | 2.9% no forecast | +2.6 pips | +31 pips | not measured |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for Japan CPI
- Japan CPI has landed at 8:30 Tokyo on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 12 of 21 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 17 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 28 Jan 2016: on 12 releases hotter than forecast USD/JPY closed the day lower 7 of 12 times; on 15 releases cooler than forecast USD/JPY closed the day higher 9 of 15 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled Japan CPI release is 22 Oct 2026 at 8:30 Tokyo (23:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what USD/JPY and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does USD/JPY move after Japan CPI?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 5.7 pips and the median 4-hour move was 20 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 15 and fell on 8.
Does the first move after Japan CPI hold?
On 16 of 23 releases the first 30 minutes and the 4-hour mark moved the same way.
When is the next Japan CPI release?
22 Oct 2026 at 8:30 Tokyo (23:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.