How does USD/JPY react to US core CPI?
In the first 30 minutes after US core CPI, USD/JPY has typically moved 27 pips either way (the median of the last 22 releases, 13 Nov 2024 to 14 Oct 2026), and 36 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 11 of 22 releases. When it came in hotter than forecast, USD/JPY split evenly in the first 30 minutes (up on 2, down on 2 of 4). When it came in cooler than forecast, USD/JPY fell in the first 30 minutes on 9 of 10, median −6.5 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was +86 pips on 12 Feb 2025.
What the numbers say
The first half hour has carried most of the move, with the typical 4-hour move 32% larger than the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 50% of the time, close to a coin flip. Surprises in either direction have moved USD/JPY opposite ways: median +20 pips when the figure came in hotter than forecast and −6.5 pips when it came in cooler than forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one Core CPI release: the figure against the forecast, then USD/JPY over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 (Sep) | 0.3% vs 0.2% hotter than forecast | +42 pips | +30 pips | −37 pips |
| 11 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 0.3% vs 0.2% hotter than forecast | −46 pips | −22 pips | −102 pips |
| 12 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 0.2% vs 0.2% in line | −12 pips | +40 pips | +3.6 pips |
| 14 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 0% vs 0.2% cooler than forecast | −29 pips | −5.5 pips | −23 pips |
| 10 Jun 2026 (May) | 0.2% vs 0.3% cooler than forecast | −5.5 pips | −2.3 pips | +13 pips |
| 12 May 2026 (Apr) | 0.4% vs 0.3% hotter than forecast | −2.1 pips | +13 pips | +41 pips |
| 10 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 0.2% vs 0.3% cooler than forecast | −2.4 pips | +5.0 pips | +61 pips |
| 11 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 0.2% vs 0.2% in line | +11 pips | +33 pips | +103 pips |
| 13 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 0.3% vs 0.3% in line | −18 pips | −46 pips | +3.1 pips |
| 13 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 0.2 vs 0.3 cooler than forecast | −1.1 pips | +18 pips | +118 pips |
| 24 Oct 2025 (Sep) | 0.2% vs 0.3% cooler than forecast | −25 pips | −11 pips | +46 pips |
| 11 Sep 2025 (Aug) | 0.3% vs 0.3% in line | −44 pips | −80 pips | −11 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for Core CPI
- Core CPI has landed at 8:30 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 9 of 21 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 65 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 20 Jan 2016: on 36 releases hotter than forecast USD/JPY closed the day higher 21 of 36 times; on 47 releases cooler than forecast USD/JPY closed the day lower 34 of 47 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled Core CPI release is 10 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what USD/JPY and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does USD/JPY move after Core CPI?
Over the last 22 releases the median first-30-minute move was 27 pips and the median 4-hour move was 36 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 4 and fell on 18.
What does USD/JPY do when Core CPI beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in hotter than forecast, USD/JPY split evenly in the first 30 minutes (up on 2, down on 2 of 4). When it came in cooler than forecast, USD/JPY fell in the first 30 minutes on 9 of 10, median −6.5 pips.
Does the first move after Core CPI hold?
On 11 of 22 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next Core CPI release?
10 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.