How does USD/JPY react to US PPI?
In the first 30 minutes after US PPI, USD/JPY has typically moved 16 pips either way (the median of the last 23 releases, 14 Nov 2024 to 15 Oct 2026), and 16 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 15 of 22 releases. When it came in hotter than forecast, USD/JPY rose in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 9, median +8.0 pips. When it came in cooler than forecast, USD/JPY fell in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 10, median −8.6 pips. The largest first-30-minute move was +47 pips on 18 Mar 2026.
What the numbers say
Most of the reaction has come in the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (16 pips) is barely larger than the first 30 minutes (16 pips). The first reaction held to the close 68% of the time, close to a coin flip. Surprises in either direction have moved USD/JPY opposite ways: median +8.0 pips when the figure came in hotter than forecast and −8.6 pips when it came in cooler than forecast.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one US PPI release: the figure against the forecast, then USD/JPY over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 (Sep) | 1.3% vs 0.5% hotter than forecast | −27 pips | +9.9 pips | +19 pips |
| 10 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 0.4% vs 0.4% in line | −0.8 pips | −7.6 pips | +90 pips |
| 13 Aug 2026 (Jul) | 0% vs 0.2% cooler than forecast | −16 pips | +14 pips | +11 pips |
| 15 Jul 2026 (Jun) | -0.3% vs 0% cooler than forecast | −18 pips | −21 pips | −10 pips |
| 11 Jun 2026 (May) | 1.1% vs 0.7% hotter than forecast | −1.4 pips | −3.3 pips | −34 pips |
| 13 May 2026 (Apr) | 1.4% vs 0.5% hotter than forecast | +8.0 pips | +6.6 pips | +17 pips |
| 14 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 0.5% vs 1.1% cooler than forecast | −5.4 pips | +14 pips | −50 pips |
| 18 Mar 2026 (Feb) | 0.7% vs 0.3% hotter than forecast | +47 pips | +50 pips | +93 pips |
| 27 Feb 2026 (Jan) | 0.5% vs 0.3% hotter than forecast | +28 pips | +17 pips | +74 pips |
| 30 Jan 2026 (Dec) | 0.5% vs 0.2% hotter than forecast | +33 pips | not measured | +199 pips |
| 14 Jan 2026 (Oct) | 0.1% no forecast | +3.0 pips | −42 pips | not measured |
| 25 Nov 2025 (Sep) | 0.3% vs 0.3% in line | −15 pips | +1.8 pips | −71 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for US PPI
- US PPI has landed at 8:30 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 8 of 23 releases, so the drift in has more often pointed the wrong way.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 48 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 15 Jan 2016: on 61 releases hotter than forecast USD/JPY closed the day higher 36 of 61 times; on 51 releases cooler than forecast USD/JPY closed the day lower 29 of 51 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled US PPI release is 13 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what USD/JPY and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does USD/JPY move after US PPI?
Over the last 23 releases the median first-30-minute move was 16 pips and the median 4-hour move was 16 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 9 and fell on 14.
What does USD/JPY do when US PPI beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in hotter than forecast, USD/JPY rose in the first 30 minutes on 5 of 9, median +8.0 pips. When it came in cooler than forecast, USD/JPY fell in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 10, median −8.6 pips.
Does the first move after US PPI hold?
On 15 of 22 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next US PPI release?
13 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.