How does USD/JPY react to US retail sales?
In the first 30 minutes after US retail sales, USD/JPY has typically moved 13 pips either way (the median of the last 24 releases, 15 Nov 2024 to 15 Oct 2026), and 31 pips after 4 hours. The first move held to the close on 16 of 24 releases. When it came in above the forecast, USD/JPY fell in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 13, median −4.6 pips. When it came in below the forecast, USD/JPY split evenly in the first 30 minutes (up on 4, down on 4 of 8). The largest first-30-minute move was −57 pips on 14 Feb 2025.
What the numbers say
The move has usually kept going after the first half hour: the typical 4-hour move (31 pips) is 2.3 times the first 30 minutes. The first reaction held to the close 67% of the time, close to a coin flip.
The last 12 releases
Each row is one Retail sales release: the figure against the forecast, then USD/JPY over the first 30 minutes and the first 4 hours, then the whole release day (the close the day before to the close of the release day).
| Release | Actual vs forecast | First 30 min | First 4 hours | Release-day close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 (Sep) | 0.8% vs 0.3% beat | −27 pips | +9.9 pips | +19 pips |
| 16 Sep 2026 (Aug) | 1.2% vs 0.8% beat | +6.8 pips | +2.4 pips | +74 pips |
| 14 Aug 2026 (Jul) | -0.6% vs 0.1% missed | +13 pips | +53 pips | −20 pips |
| 16 Jul 2026 (Jun) | 0.2% vs 0.2% in line | +14 pips | +26 pips | +30 pips |
| 17 Jun 2026 (May) | 0.9% vs 0.5% beat | −5.9 pips | −8.6 pips | +14 pips |
| 14 May 2026 (Apr) | 0.5% vs 0.5% in line | +0.1 pips | +14 pips | +55 pips |
| 21 Apr 2026 (Mar) | 1.7% vs 1.4% beat | +12 pips | +34 pips | +48 pips |
| 1 Apr 2026 (Feb) | 0.6% vs 0.5% beat | +18 pips | +28 pips | +13 pips |
| 6 Mar 2026 (Jan) | -0.2% vs -0.3% beat | −13 pips | −37 pips | +86 pips |
| 10 Feb 2026 (Dec) | 0% vs 0.4% missed | −42 pips | −89 pips | −162 pips |
| 14 Jan 2026 (Nov) | 0.6% vs 0.4% beat | +3.0 pips | −42 pips | −74 pips |
| 16 Dec 2025 (Oct) | 0% vs 0.1% missed | +10 pips | +20 pips | −26 pips |
Sources: Yahoo Finance 5-minute and hourly bars, the TradingView economic calendar (actual and forecast), Yahoo Finance daily bars for the release day. Gold is COMEX futures, US indices are CME futures.
How traders prepare for Retail sales
- Retail sales has landed at 8:30 New York on most of these releases. Every window on this page is measured from that minute.
- The 4 hours before the print drifted the same way as the move after it on 11 of 23 releases, so the drift in has said little about the move after.
- The typical first-hour range, high to low, has been 49 pips. A stop or a limit order closer than that to the price at the print has usually been reached by the release noise alone.
- Over the longer run, since 15 Jan 2016: on 58 releases above the forecast USD/JPY closed the day higher 35 of 58 times; on 58 releases below the forecast USD/JPY closed the day lower 33 of 58 times. That is the whole day, other news included.
- The prices are mid quotes from intraday bars, not a broker's fill: spreads widen around a release, so a real order can fill worse than these numbers.
The next release
The next scheduled Retail sales release is 17 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar. This page refreshes on its own once that release has been measured.
See this before every release, free
The free section's calendar Playbook shows this same history on every release before it prints: what USD/JPY and the other main markets did on hotter and cooler figures, and the first hours after.
Open the free section →FAQ
How much does USD/JPY move after Retail sales?
Over the last 24 releases the median first-30-minute move was 13 pips and the median 4-hour move was 31 pips. It rose in the first 30 minutes on 11 and fell on 13.
What does USD/JPY do when Retail sales beats or misses the forecast?
When it came in above the forecast, USD/JPY fell in the first 30 minutes on 8 of 13, median −4.6 pips. When it came in below the forecast, USD/JPY split evenly in the first 30 minutes (up on 4, down on 4 of 8).
Does the first move after Retail sales hold?
On 16 of 24 releases the first 30 minutes and the close moved the same way.
When is the next Retail sales release?
17 Nov 2026 at 8:30 New York (13:30 UTC), on the public economic calendar.